Wall Street closes at a record for the first time since end of January
If you are a follower of JC Parets, you would be looking at a (very) bullish market outlook. I would be more cautious, but Thursday’s action has done much to negate some of the lingering bearishness from Wednesday. However, markets in a trading range should be considered neutral until all-time highs are breached, but long-term investors can accumulate.
The Russell 2000 (IWM) gapped higher on Wednesday, but closed with a bearish black candlestick. However, Thursday’s buying managed to create a bullish engulfing pattern, negating the bearish black candlestick. In addition, Wednesday’s gap created an "island reversal," which is a significant (bullish) reversal pattern. Note, this gap can’t be closed for the pattern to be true. Technicals are improving with a ’buy’ trigger in stochastics matching earlier ones in On-Balance-Volume and MACD.
The S&P 500 gapped past 200-day MA and closed above its 50-day MA, but today will come up against declining resistance defined by the series of mini-swing highs from January/February. Technicals saw a new ’buy’ signal in stochastics.
The Nasdaq also finished with a bearish ’black’ candlestick on Wednesday, but managed to negate that today with a bullish engulfing pattern on Thursday. Today’s action also retained a close above its 50-day MA along with a close above the stochastic mid-line.
Bitcoin managed to keep its bullish rally intact, but now does so on net bullish technicals.
However, the Semiconductor Index managed a new breakout that does mark itself as a new bull market on net bullish technicals.
For today, we want to ensure Thursday’s gains are not undercut by any selling. A consolidation doji, or equivalent, would perhaps be the best outcome outside of another day’s gain. It’s just hard, given the state of the Iranian ceasefire, that today will deliver another bullish day.