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Stephen Innes

  • Analysis & Opinion

Stephen Innes's Opinion & Analysis
A complete archive of Stephen Innes's articles, including current analysis & opinion.

The Market Rings the Bell Before the War Ends
By Stephen Innes - Apr 15, 20261
Takeaways• The market is trading the expectation of peace, not the reality, and it is doing so with conviction that leaves little room for hesitation • Lower oil has flipped the narrative...
Takeaways The Sunday dip and Monday fade pattern reflects cautious positioning, meeting rebuilding conviction Hope around negotiations continues to drive risk appetite even without a formal deal Oil...
Takeaways• The blockade reframes the conflict from immediate escalation risk into a controlled supply squeeze that lifts oil without triggering full panic • Brent above $100 signals a shift...
Takeaways• The rally was driven by relief from worst-case war scenarios, but lost momentum as traders hesitated ahead of high-risk negotiations • Oil may have fallen sharply this week, but...
Takeaways• Pricing The Absence Of EscalationMarkets are leaning into the assumption that the next military expansion never arrives. • Part Conviction Part Mechanics Part ForcedThe rally is...
Takeaways The market has shifted from fear-driven positioning to forward-looking optimism, with risk assets extending gains as oil retreats from peak disruption Physical oil markets remain tight, and...
Takeaways The dollar is stabilizing as ceasefire fragility reenters the narrative, showing the market is pricing uncertainty, not resolution High beta and carry FX can extend gains if volatility stays...
Caveat: I genuinely hope this view proves wrong and that a genuine peace dividend emerges from the Pakistan summit, allowing markets to shift back to trading fundamentals by the end of...
FX Alert: Back From the Brink
By Stephen Innes - Apr 08, 20261
Takeaways The ceasefire triggers a mechanical unwind of oil and dollar strength, with curves bull steepening and risk assets rebounding The next two weeks are critical as markets shift from pricing...
Takeaways The ceasefire forced a rapid repricing of inflation and rate expectations, reversing the recent drift higher in yields Oil’s collapse reflects the removal of worst-case supply...